Based on what I can observe on the Internet, there is a trend visible that requires that we restructure society and the economy. Governments are not inclined to look far into the future as they are too much concerned with the near future (4 years ahead). Societal change is certainly not on their agenda. The economic system is not within their control. They even struggle to take steps in the right direction to save the planet for future generations. I based this story on my hypothesis that the Diagnostics of Things is what remains to close the loop on self-sustaining machines. When machines can diagnose their own status and take action to remedy any issues, they will be self-sustaining, which basically means that they can take care of themselves. With the trend to further automate tasks, we need to think about our role in the future and how we can shape society such that we do not end up in a Terminator scenario or in the Matrix.

Things wear out in time. It is good practice to maintain them. Even then, things break down. The break down can have severe effects on your operation if you are running a factory and thus it would be good to get an early warning, such that maintenance can be performed before it affects your operation. The assessment of “what the (ill) state of the machinery is in” is called diagnosis.

    Diagnostics = the discipline or practice of diagnosis

There are many machines or otherwise inanimate things that can be assessed. For example your car. You can be sure that your car is being monitored around the clock by companies who would like to learn from experience (Big Data) and would like to get you to the repair shop on time. The diagnostic apparatus is more and more connected to a network and even to the Internet. One could say that it is an Internet of Things, and in this context, it may be even called the Diagnostics of Things.

    Thing = inanimate or lifeless object

So much for definitions, what does this bring us?

Imagine a world where machines can take care of themselves and reproduce the necessary parts needed to keep working. DoT is a first step in machine “self consciousness” that would enable such a development. This is the next step beyond Industry 4.0. Industry 4.0 is where condition monitoring and sensing is used to optimize production for cost.

The diagnostics of things is not something new. It has been around for as long as machines exist. However, while this was formerly performed by humans, the trend is now to automate the process. This step has become necessary to cope with the vast number of machines, the cost of performing diagnosis and lack of knowledgable persons that can perform the task. We now have the capability to implement auto-diagnosis. This is partially because of the artificial intelligence trend that has automated trading, automated language translation, image recognition, playing a game of GO amongst many other applications. But, also because we can run physical models in real time to support the diagnosis process.

Beyond DoT: diagnostics will enable the automated the growth of crops and automated harvesting, automatic water management and many other tasks that will make live on earth easier.

If the 20th century was the industrial age that gradually developed into the Information age, the 21st century can be called the age of automation. With that transformation, there are concerns about how our society will allow for meaningful participation. At this moment there are already signs of unemployment in certain sectors and this will inevitably grow in the future as automation increases. People are scared of automation for in the current setting it is only the companies that profit from the trend. Most people’s current jobs will become automated and thus people will become redundant. Along with the further automation, a new concept for society needs to be developed and gradually implemented, otherwise our economic system will certainly collapse. For the economy needs consumers and if they are driven to poverty, there will be no one to purchase the products other than the few who run the cooperations. We need to get beyond this form of Darwinism and realize a more humane and sustainable model for society.

Governments will need to come with a new concept such that we can all live comfortably on this planet. Some initiatives like Universal Basic Income are well meant initiatives, however, they do not take away the problem of a fair distribution of wealth. Taxes on profits will need to be increased to pay for such a system otherwise all the wealth will eventually end up at cooperations and the people who run and support them. We are in a situation that the economically wealthy countries can easily support all their inhabitants, its just that the distribution of wealth is not equalized. Given that we could all live comfortably, do we need money anyway?

Some people are worried that we will not work if we do not get money for the effort we put in. For some jobs this may be true, like garbage collection, cleaning, and other jobs. So what if they are automated, what’s left then? I personally, would be bored and depressed if I could not contribute to society in some way. It all boils down to motivation and based on Daniel H. Pink’s “Drive” it has been scientifically proven that money does not motivate us to work effectively on difficult problems if we are already living comfortably. People need a sense of purpose. Relieved from the mundane and dangerous tasks, we would be able to tackle those tasks not automated yet and move on to further improve our standard of living. We could get rid of poverty all together if we would no longer need money. We basically need to manage our resources and their distribution such that they are at the right place at the right time to manufacture what we need. Maybe not everyone will want to participate, at least not all the time, which is probably not a problem for there are too many people on this planet already. So, just enjoy the ride while others will joyfully contribute to further improve things. If you doubt that anything can be accomplished through intrinsic motivation, consider the many Open Source Software (like Linux) and Open Source Hardware projects (like Open Hand or Arduino) that really make a difference to us today.

In the current economic model, we need to consume to support the turnover and thus profitability of companies. This is not a sustainable model if we do not reuse the resources in the waste that this model creates. What if we could just make things really well and avoid disposing of mediocre products that are designed to fail in order to reenforce the consumption? We would avoid a lot of waste caused by production which in the current state of the art of production would certainly reduce the emissions of green house gasses. It would be more sustainable to produce products that last long and are at the latest state of the art of technology. Using resources more efficiently and applying cradle-to-cradle principles are a good way forward to realizing a more sustainable economy.

The concept of a purely resource based economy is not new. Jacques Fresco has spent his whole life further refining the idea in Venus Florida (The Venus Project). The Zeitgeist Movement also advocates a non-monetary system based on resource allocation. The change will not happen within the next few years, however, we should be prepared to make the change. Otherwise, the system that we now have will cause increasing inequality which will ignite a revolt that will break down all that we have accomplished. Some may think that this would be a good thing, but I am not prepared to go back to living in a cave.

I am a parent and I am concerned about the future, but the trend is inevitable. So we should better work on turning this automation into something good and be prepared for the change. I am looking forward to a society where intrinsic motivation is the main driver for creation. I expect that people will be more happy with their life in general. There will also be more time for family, the arts, sports and play.

André van der Ham

This is my own humble opinion.

No offense is implied.

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